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Saturday, May 1, 2010

The Greek Tragedy



At the outset, what is pretty obvious to everyone is that  the Greek crisis is simply on account of public debt (of the government). However, as history will show that this is directly linked to the private debt. Since in the event of bust in the private sector, perpetrates increase in governmental debt on account of decline of government income and increase in government expenditure on social sector, secondly, there would be some part of private debt guaranteed implicitly or explicitly by the government, which government needs to address through its public debt. Given this the variation in public and private debt is quite cyclic in nature, with the latter following the former. While in Eurozone on the whole the public debt is within healthy 85% of GDP, individual countries do not replicate the same strength. Greece for instance has seen the public debt far exceeding 100% of the GDP, landing into a deficit to the extent of around 13%. The public debt which took the upward direction from 2005 in Greece, kept upward journey unchecked when analysts, having failed miserably in predicting the US recession  and sovereign debt crisis, in a move for redemption, went in frenzy with downgrading the Greek government to BBB plus rating for the first time in ten years on the 8th of December, 2009. Market always being a sentimental being responded with panic waves all around. Moody's and S&Ps warned of further downgrade with the fear of debt further going up to to 25% over the GDP in 2010. What made the matter graver was the fact that Greece has been cooking up its books, keeping under veils its debt which had reached 30 Bn Euro taking it to 113% of the GDP. This was followed by the announcement of austerity measure by the prime minister of Greece, George Papandreou, it contained serious measures than the one announced by UPA and ridiculed on net by their MP. For one 90 percent tax on bonuses of senior private sector bankers, ban in bonuses of public sector executives and 10% cut on civil servant allowances. On January 11, the wold community responded to the panic calls coming from Eurozone with IMF ( INternational Monetary Fund) appointing technical committee to assist Greek government in policy alignment and formulating measures to ward off the danger. As the Greek crisis pulled down the Euro to five year low, scathing attack came on Greece from the EU Commissioner, Joaqim Almunia criticizing the Greece government for fudging the data, while the statement of Dutch Finance minister Wouter Bos, calling it a Greek problem to be resolved by Greece only, reflected the general sentiment among EU member countries to stay away from the crisis, already reeling themselves under the impact of last years global recession. Greece however, extended its plea for a bailout package to the tune of 60Bn USD to EU and IMF. Towards the end of January, the investments of around 28 Bn USD in the first of the year government bond in Greece calmed some nerves. This was to an extent driven by a rumor that Greek government has Goldman Sachs to sell government debt to China, a swift denial of which brought back the clouds after a very brief sunshine. On February 11th 2010, a communication which marked the end of apprehensions on the survival of EU, notified the willlingness of the EU leader to support the bailout of Greek government subject to committed and visible efforts to reduce the deficit. March 4, again sentiments were revived, as the investors acted like a young soul in love, with the news of selling of 5 Bn Euro worth of 10 year bonds by Athens. Eurozone members on April 12th agreed to provide loans to the tune of 30 Bn Euro at the rate of 5 percent for three years, over and above 15 Bn Euro coming from IMF. April 22nd saw the deficit growing to 13.6 percent as against the estimate of 12.9 percent, enough to cause panic to already fearful markets on the back of highest in six years unemployment data. Subsequent downgrading by rating agencies, saw Greek regulator banning short selling of the stocks, as Germany predicted a need for around 100 to 120 Bn Euro to revive the Greek economy. The approval of this rescue plan is expected to come on 10th of May, 2010, when we will know if we are able to stave off the Greek tragedy, at least for now. While the financial tribe in India keeps tab on these developments, on an hour by hour basis, hope the matter is given due consideration by the political class in India, whose political ideologies revolve around free TV, Free rice and Free power, without any consideration to the far reaching impacts. The general populace can claim ignorance, but what about those who offer such populist lollypops. In India, we are not much better off given our own deficit is around 10.3%, we are still in perceivably better situation possibly because, growth in India is yet far from stagnation, and could be only a matter of perception, after Satyam and Lehman Brothers who do you trust. We as citizens need to decide between our most immediate selfish reasons and what we are going to leave for our children as we all know, there is no free lunch in this world, sooner or later we will have to pay for what we use.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

To Will One Act a Day

I remember I used to be amused with the precision with which my parents would go to bed and come out of it, same time, day after day, month after month. I with usual teenage swagger of thought would scoff at it, interpreting philosophy in my own way, letting life go, live the way you want to. I trust, it is common part of every individual's life, what we call growing up. But then, living the way you want to live is not about succumbing to temptations, but is about being in control. It is about deciding what you want to do without the worry and pretensions forced on by life and society as we have it. Step one is to identify what you want to do, apart from things that you have to do and then get engage in dogged pursuit of the same. Even if deciding what you want to do in life comes forward as a great liberating thought, it might not always be possible to go at it right at start after years of gluttony, silliness and societal adaptation. To will one act of the day could be a good point to start. It is this will to the act on this the Will to the life will build up and which as Shopenhauer said, is the key to riddle that man is to himself. It is important to have one thing fixed, uncompromising every day, not matter how silly it may be, something like a ritual, it could be half an hour set aside for listening music(not as backdrop but as activity) or exercise or walk or write or read or do nothing, but something constant and look forward to everyday...as a mark of control in otherwise uncontrolled and uncontrollable happenings in the world. It will keep you going every day with excitement..so as to encourage you to take on bigger things. The act of willing things in a particular fashion will embolden you to do bigger things, to bring all you are capable of being to the fore. To begin with, take one activity and go for a religious pursuit of it, walk, run, sit with your parents, walk the pet, do something, same time every day, at least do it every day, and being able to do it every day will bring so much feeling of being in control and happiness that you will love yourself and the world around more for it. 

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Self-Discipline

I still remember how my parents would actually hold me up in the morning, as I would try to hold on to the door and try to sleep, there itself, like a horse. I was always thinking about what pleasure they might be drawing out of pushing me out of the bed at the unearthly hour of five in the morning. What great discovery I was expected to make by being out of the bed so early. They told me that I would be able to be a fast learner if I get up early in the moring, I did not believe a bit of it. I felt my level of stupidity to be uniformly constant, irrespective of whatever hour of day it was. My entire childhood and later early part of teenage life went by trying to understand the seemingly sadistic pleasure they would be deriving out keeping me deprived of sleep, while the later part of my teenage life and early adult life went in a sort of protest against this early life ritual, with unslept nights and days in slumber. It started dawning only couple of physical ailments and one child later, that early to rise may not make you wise, but vice-versa is certainly true. That is, if you are wise, you, most certainly will rise early. It is not only to catch a worm that one has to rise early, it is the most basic act which demonstrates your control over your own desire for luxury. It is one small step, which defines the journey one is going to take. Rising early, you can smell the air which still is not polluted. Getting up early is more about the effect it psychologically has on you, it is so difficult to get out of the comfort of the bed, especially in the cold of the morning. The very fact of getting out gives you a feeling of being in control. If you can top it up with little exercise, which is again contradicting the the temptation to luxury, the immense sense of self-control and control, in general, over life and your being. The sense of control will carry itself with you for the whole day and will at the end of the day, ensure that you are sure of your self and as a result, not worried and defensive (and offensive by the same logic) to people.

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

The Importance of Networking

In today's professional world, or otherwise, you just need to look little bit deeply and you see the significance of networking. Once a term with slightly negative connotation, now is taken as necessary evil. It is not something that is gaining currency in the world of globalisation as rightists would say, or westernization as leftists would say. This is something that has been around probably since the time man came out of the cave to live in a society where one person interacted with other and the way one person lived and behaved was largely impacted by the people or the society at large, that he lived in. Unlike non-thinking animals, thinking man derives his power from the power he has over men who he calls his circle. The caveman who ruled the group, was the one voted to rule, half on his capability, half on the number of people on whom he held the sway. Call it any name, there was always democracy, the power of people, who made kings, wise and mad. It does not come from the real power that one held, many a sages with age not on their side, held more power than kings, simply because they would have big kings (again big by number of people in their army... people) on whom they held the sway. The long and short of it is that networking has historic origin. It has grown into the art through years of refinement. It is not a tool for the lowly people, it is a necessary need for the able ones. Able people, simply by virtue of their ability, make themselves indispensable. Through their hard work and dedication, they become more able, and are less and less tolerant to mediocrity, which in turn, teams up together, having beer together, amoral laughter together, in relationships with no depth, but with great calculation. A lone man with capable, is like out in front of a pride of lions with no protection, or support, or backup. Some time he tries to fit in to the same group of mediocrity, feels the shallowness of the relationships there. He is like a man on the top of the cliff, taking a plunge into the large expanse of water, only to find there is no depth in their. Instead of feeling the sheer fun of tearing through the depths of water, you end up in the mud at the base of shallow waters. Then humiliated and soiled, he sits alone in corner, alienated, feeling more vulnerable than ever before. You know, where the fault lies, not in the fact that he tried to network. But the fact that he tried to network out of his own class. To make fit in a totally different class, he makes compromises with himself, loses touch with his own class and keeps on going down the spiral feeding on self-deprecation and finally the mask goes off. He comes out as a lion in the club of wolves, who detest him for his majestic walk, come together and attack him. Kings became bigger kings by aligning with kings, never did they attempt to actually fit in with the masses. Alexander coming together with Porus is a glorious sight, and did give enormous range and strength to the Empire, but can not imagine what Alexander would have achieved by trying to cultivate relation with the group of vegetable sellers in the empire of Porus by sharing cheap drinks and lewd comments. It is very important to key in right, like-minded people in your network, who share your mental space. It is very improbable that you do not know those people, like-minded people know each other. I have seen in industry, if you list out ten most influential people, they would be known to each other and would be established as able people. If those ten people are in touch with each other socially they all will be successful from all worldly parameters. The issue is people skill, you work hard, do good work, know all others in the area you work who are like you. But you do not reach out to them, because you have been able to be all that you are because you never perceived any weakness in yourself, reaching out will mean recognizing your weakness, your Achilles heel. You all admire each other, and don't reach other and keep on humiliating yourselves by attempting to be a part of a human mass which is not equal to you in intellect or effort. You keep fighting with what you have and keep on bleeding, hoping for death or victory. Usually, it is death which comes first. Reach out, I tell you, reach out so that this flame of human excellence is not subjugated...

Friday, March 21, 2008

Significance of the Roots

Not many people understand and appreciate the significance of small nuances which went into making all things Indian. Now the engagements in festivals is going so much down, even if there is some interest, mostly superficial one remaining in the festivals, it is more of a market driven exercise, which unfortunately is taking away the character of those festivals and converting them all into a look alike occasion to party. All festivities now resembling more and more New year celebration. Earlier, holi was not something to be celebrated in the plush hotel interiors. I still remember the days of reckless freedom, making groups of friends, so much laughs and fun and back slapping, going to each friends' house, having a lot of bhang and thandai and sweets and finally getting tired and lying on the street, lazing out in the sun. Where is the fun any more? Surprise is on the streets, there are more foreigners buying colors on the street than Indian. To think some one chose death over life, when life was lying in wait with all its promises, singing.. Mera Rang de Basanti Chola...

Sunday, March 2, 2008

Looking inside the Leadership DNA-I

Leadership is something that man has aspired for across the generations, or is it really a humane thing or a very basic animal aspiration? Any animal wants to head the group that he lives in be it the herd, a pride or a society for human beings, and entire life it the struggle to accomodate this all-engulfing feeling and still staying alive. The question is why we want to be leader, or may be in some instance why some holy men whose stories we love to talk of, despise of leadership, if leadership is such a basic instinct. Looking deeply, what I believe is that leadership in intself is not intent or the purpose. The purpose is to be free, free from the deprivation, free from the need to fit in, free to be. We want to revert to the blissful days in the embryo, we sleep and wake at the time when we want to, we live the way we want to, all our needs taken care of. It is our own small world, no one rubs you the wrong way, in fact, no one rubs you at all. Once in existence, you are inevitably thrown into chaos, in a congested life space where you struggle for toehold with people who all have same aspiration. The rules have to be there, with so many actors around, to bring a semblence of order into chaos. And entire struggle is to ensure that while the entire mass around you is tamed by putting to rules, and thus creating a better view for your existence, everyone's life is struggle is to evolve above the chain of rules. The holy men denouncing leadership, do so because they are away from the masses and therefore do not need to escape. Others, have no choice and have to aspire to rise and escape. How they do it, we look in following posts..

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Is there a Justification?

It sometime amazes me to think, how with so much of dexterity we try to justify the wrongs, especially if we know for sure that it is beyond our factulties, beyond our strength to win against the source of the wrong, the epicentre of the immense bottomless pain that we are subjected to. May be, it emnates from the hypothesis called the suvival of the fittest. We survive, to a great extent because we do not know. This not knowing allows us to believe in the beauty of life and to live our life without attempting to shorten the span of the futile exercise, which sooner or later is bound to come to an end, no matter how hard we might try. We turn our face from the ugliness which arise from the randomness inherent in the basic design of the network. We try to imagine a pattern which is nowhere, try to detect order, when there is none. All that is true is chaos, disorder and incoherence. What could justify the universe which allows a new life come to existence without an opportunity to see or know. Not that the event of new life coming to existence is something wrong, what I have problem with is in getting to terms with the fact that the one responsible for it to come in being is not around to welcome the soul. How could one justify this as act of God or Act of nature, both God and Nature I have been culturally conditioned to respect both. It is difficult to go unfazed in the trust that one places in the benevolent, all powerful forces, call it nature or God. As I prepare to welcome the extention of my being into future, as I pole vault my DNA to beyond my lifescope, and prepare an umbrella our the head of the soul yet to breathe life and try to stretch it from one end ot the sky to another, there is a corner in my heart which silently weeps for the other soul which would come to life arond the same time, but whose umbrella has been taken away by a storm. I think, it is the corner of dead tissues in heart, which shows as inactive in reports. May God have mercy on the the little one and the blessed mother.